Champions League Top-Eight Race: How Close Are We?
As the Champions League enters its final stages, Arsenal finds itself on the cusp of securing a top-eight finish. A win in either of the last two matches could guarantee an easier path to the title. Here’s what’s at stake.
The Champions League league stage is heating up, and with just two matchweeks remaining, the competition is reaching its most critical phase. For Arsenal, this means Wednesday’s clash against Dinamo Zagreb could be the key to a smooth path forward.
Currently, Arsenal stands third in the 36-team table, trailing only Liverpool and Barcelona. With 13 points earned from six group games, they are firmly in the race for a coveted top-eight finish. Achieving this position not only secures a direct bye into the Round of 16 but also avoids the added pressure of the play-off rounds. Additionally, top-eight teams benefit from home-field advantage in the second leg of the knockout stage—a crucial edge in March’s high-stakes games.
But just how many points are needed to lock in that elite spot?
The Numbers Game
Data from Opta’s simulations paints a clear picture. After running 50,000 scenarios of the league phase, it was revealed that a team with 16 points almost always qualifies for the top eight—successfully doing so in 98% of simulations. A tally of 15 points proved sufficient in 73% of cases, while 14 points drastically lowered the chances to just 28%. With 13 points already secured, Arsenal is in prime position. A single win in their remaining fixtures against Dinamo Zagreb or Girona could take them over the line.
A Play-Off Spot All But Secured
Encouragingly, 10 points were enough to secure a play-off round position in 99% of Opta’s simulations. With a five-point lead over Zagreb, who occupy the 24th and final qualifying spot, Arsenal’s place in the play-offs seems secure. However, the focus now shifts to finishing in the top eight and avoiding the extra play-off games.
Current Champions League Standings
Position
Team
P
GD
Pts
1
Liverpool
7
13
21
2
FC Barcelona
7
15
18
3
Atlético Madrid
7
5
15
4
Atalanta
7
14
14
5
Arsenal
6
9
13
6
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
7
6
13
7
Inter
6
6
13
8
Aston Villa
7
5
13
9
Brest
6
4
13
10
Monaco
7
3
13
11
LOSC Lille
7
2
13
12
Club Brugge
7
-1
13
13
FC Bayern München
6
9
12
14
Borussia Dortmund
7
8
12
15
Milan
6
3
12
16
PSV
7
3
11
17
Juventus
7
3
11
18
Benfica
7
2
10
19
Sporting CP
6
2
10
20
Feyenoord
6
-1
10
21
VfB Stuttgart
7
-1
10
22
Real Madrid
6
1
9
23
Celtic
6
0
9
24
Manchester City
6
4
8
25
Dinamo Zagreb
6
-5
8
The Final Push
Arsenal’s destiny is in their hands. A victory against either Dinamo Zagreb or Girona would likely guarantee a top-eight spot and grant the team the invaluable advantage of a Round of 16 bye. With everything to play for, the Gunners are closer than ever to making their mark on Europe’s biggest stage.
The Champions League dream is alive and within reach—now it’s all about finishing strong.
