Can Birmingham City Stun Premier League Giants Newcastle in the FA Cup?
Birmingham City is set to face a formidable challenge as they take on Newcastle United in the FA Cup fourth round at St Andrew’s on Saturday. While the Magpies are overwhelming favorites, the Blues will be eager to defy expectations and pull off a memorable upset.
Birmingham’s Road to the Fourth Round
Birmingham City has battled through three rounds to reach this stage, showcasing resilience and determination. They began their FA Cup campaign with a narrow 1-0 victory over Sutton United before edging past Blackpool 2-1 in the second round. Their most recent triumph came against Lincoln City, where early and late strikes secured another 2-1 win.
Chris Davies’ side is having an exceptional season in League One, currently leading the table with a strong chance of surpassing the 100-point mark. They enter this clash on an 18-match unbeaten streak, the second-longest active run in England’s top four divisions. Their recent midweek win over Stevenage in the EFL Trophy semi-finals further solidifies their momentum, with Jay Stansfield continuing his impressive goal-scoring form.
Despite their domestic dominance, history is not on their side in this competition. Birmingham has struggled against Premier League opponents in the FA Cup, failing to secure a win in their last 10 such encounters (D2 L8). If they are to progress to the fifth round for the first time since 2019-20, they must break that pattern.
Newcastle’s Cup Aspirations and Squad Strength
Newcastle United enters the contest fresh off a commanding 4-0 aggregate victory over Arsenal in the EFL Cup semi-finals, setting up their second final appearance in three years. The Magpies have been in fine form and are expected to field a strong lineup despite a few key absences.
Striker Alexander Isak has been a driving force for Eddie Howe’s squad, nearing the 20-goal mark for the second consecutive season. Although he didn’t score against Arsenal, his presence created havoc for defenders, directly influencing the opening goal. Meanwhile, Anthony Gordon continues to be a threat, netting his sixth goal in 10 appearances.
Newcastle has a mixed record against lower-league teams in the FA Cup, having been eliminated by such opposition 32 times in their history. Their last upset came in 2023, when they were knocked out by Sheffield Wednesday. However, their recent consistency in domestic and cup competitions suggests they will approach this fixture with the right mindset.
Injury Concerns and Potential Rotations
Eddie Howe will have to navigate this fixture without several key players. Joelinton has been sidelined for at least a month due to a knee injury, while Harvey Barnes, Jamaal Lascelles, and Sven Botman are also unavailable.
Given their midweek exertions, Newcastle may rotate their squad, with Callum Wilson, Joe Willock, and Sean Longstaff potentially stepping in. This could provide an opportunity for Birmingham to exploit any lack of cohesion in their opponent’s lineup.
Head-to-Head and Prediction
This will be the first meeting between Birmingham and Newcastle since 2017, when they played out a goalless draw in the Championship. Historically, Birmingham has struggled in this fixture, winning just once in their last 15 meetings (D7 L7). Their last home victory over Newcastle dates back to 2000.
Statistically, Premier League teams have dominated FA Cup encounters against third-tier opposition, with just one elimination in the last 11 such ties since 2022-23. While Birmingham’s form is impressive, Newcastle’s superior quality and experience are likely to prove decisive.
Prediction: Newcastle to advance with a comfortable 2-0 victory.
