The UEFA Champions League quarter-final second leg between Inter Milan and Bayern Munich is shaping up to be a thrilling decider. Inter enter the match with a slender 2-1 lead from the first leg, and with both clubs carrying rich histories and high expectations, all eyes turn to San Siro for what promises to be a tactical and emotional showdown.
The Numbers That Matter
Inter Milan has a solid history when it comes to defending a first-leg lead. Of their previous 23 European knockout ties where they’ve led after the opening match, they’ve advanced 21 times, a staggering 91% success rate. They are also riding a 14-game unbeaten run at home in the Champions League (12 wins, 2 draws), the longest current streak in the competition.
Stat models echo that confidence, with Opta’s supercomputer assigning Inter a 72% probability of reaching the semi-finals. Their high-intensity pressing, peaking at 573 pressure actions in the first leg, helped neutralize Bayern’s attack despite the German side dominating the shot count and xG.
Bayern’s Uphill Battle
Despite dominating large stretches of the first leg with 20 shots and an expected goals (xG) total of 2.30, Bayern could only find the net once through veteran Thomas Müller. Inter, meanwhile, capitalized on fewer opportunities, making their 2-1 away win even more valuable.
Bayern’s biggest concern heading into the second leg is their recent track record after first-leg defeats. They’ve advanced only once in their last eight Champions League knockout ties when losing the opener. That said, their lone success came last season against Lazio, providing a faint glimmer of hope.
The German giants also face another trend they’ll want to reverse: all three of their Champions League visits to Inter’s home ground ended in clean-sheet losses. Ironically, this represents Inter’s worst home record against a single European opponent.
Players to Watch
- Lautaro Martínez is on fire with goals in his last four Champions League appearances. A fifth consecutive goal would put him in elite company alongside Inter legends Hernán Crespo and Samuel Eto’o.
- Harry Kane enters the tie with a monumental 100 goal contributions (78 goals, 22 assists) for Bayern across all competitions, and he’ll need to deliver big if his side is to progress.
- On the other end, Benjamin Pavard could earn his 50th Champions League appearance, an occasion made more special by his previous stint with Bayern.
Head-to-Head Snapshot
The last six Champions League encounters between these teams are split evenly, three wins apiece. Interestingly, five of those six victories were secured by the away team, signaling that home advantage may not play a decisive role.
Prediction Summary
With Inter’s defensive resilience, home record, and narrow edge, they are favorites to see this tie through, but Bayern’s European pedigree ensures nothing is settled until the final whistle.
Predicted Outcome:
Inter to qualify with a likely aggregate score of 3-2.
