As the Premier League heats up, Anfield prepares to host one of English football’s most storied rivalries, Liverpool vs Everton. This midweek clash isn’t just about local bragging rights; it’s a high-stakes encounter with historical weight, form narratives, and season-defining implications.
A Historic Milestone on the Horizon
Liverpool stands on the cusp of a milestone. With 99 wins in Merseyside derby history, the Reds have the chance to become just the fifth English team to reach 100 victories over a single opponent in league play. Their dominance at Anfield has been unmistakable in recent years, winning five of the last six Premier League derbies played there.
Everton, meanwhile, will be hoping to replicate the tenacity shown in February’s 2-2 draw at Goodison Park. That game saw the Toffees outshoot Liverpool and limit them to their lowest expected goals tally in any league fixture this season. Though the reverse fixture ended in drama, Everton proved they can rattle their high-flying neighbors.
Form and Fitness: Momentum vs Consistency
Liverpool enter this clash having stumbled domestically and in Europe, suffering elimination in both the UEFA Champions League and the EFL Cup before the international break. Despite these setbacks, they remain firmly atop the Premier League standings and are poised for a late-season push.
Everton, in contrast, are quietly enjoying their longest unbeaten league run since 2017. While draws have plagued their momentum, five in the last six games, they’ve demonstrated grit and a knack for late equalizers, often rescuing results in the dying minutes.
Injury concerns still linger on both sides. Liverpool hopes to have Alisson and Ryan Gravenberch fit following early returns from international duty. Conor Bradley remains doubtful, meaning Jarell Quansah may deputize at right-back. For Everton, the status of Iliman Ndiaye, Dwight McNeil, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains uncertain, potentially limiting their attacking options.
Tactical Trends and Set-Piece Contrasts
One of the key differences between these sides lies in their approach to set-pieces. Everton has relied heavily on dead-ball situations this season, with over 40% of their goals coming from non-penalty set plays, a league-high. Liverpool, by contrast, has netted just 6% of their goals in this manner, emphasizing their open-play prowess led by the likes of Mohamed Salah.
Salah, notably, has been a consistent thorn in Everton’s side. With eight derby goals to his name, he sits just one behind Steven Gerrard’s Premier League record in this historic fixture. With speculation swirling about his future at Anfield, this derby could mark a significant chapter in the Egyptian’s storied career on Merseyside.
The Numbers Behind the Rivalry
This fixture is statistically one of the Premier League’s most evenly contested when it comes to draws—26 of their 65 encounters in the competition have ended level. However, data models suggest a stalemate is less likely this time around, forecasting just an 18.8% chance of a draw.
Liverpool are heavy favorites with a 66.3% win probability, while Everton are rated at just 14.9% to steal three points. And yet, in a derby fueled by passion and unpredictability, nothing can be ruled out.
Prediction
Given Liverpool’s commanding record at Anfield and the attacking depth at their disposal, they are well-positioned to claim their 100th derby victory. Everton’s resilience might keep the scoreline close, but the Reds should edge it, especially with the home crowd roaring them on.
